RFE/RL Daily Report
No. 187, 30 September 1994
SLOVAK POLICE DETAIN URANIUM SMUGGLERS. Slovak police arrested on
28 September four Slovaks who were trying to smuggle 1.5 kilograms
of uranium through the Slovak-Hungarian border crossing at
Slovenske Nove Mesto, TASR reported. Although the box containing
the uranium was marked "U-235," it remains uncertain whether the
seized material is weapons-grade. The four Slovaks, who are
reportedly members of an organized criminal group, gave the
authorities different versions of where the uranium came from and
where it was headed, but it is presumed that it did not originate
in Slovakia, Reuters reported. A top judiciary official told TASR
on 29 September that under Slovak law the smugglers could be
sentenced to prison terms of up to fifteen years. -- Sharon
Fisher, RFE/RL Inc.
HUNGARIAN PRESIDENT IN PARIS. During an official visit to the
French capital, Arpad Goncz received assurances that France will
support Hungary's bid to join the European Union, Nepszabadsag
reports. The trip was the first visit ever by a Hungarian
president to Paris. President Francois Mitterrand said Hungary's
joining the EC has been decided and only the timing is in
question. He added that there is no difference between France's
and Germany's position in this regard. Prime Minister Edouard
Balladur said Hungary's membership depends on the modernization of
the Hungarian economy and on the signing a "stabilization pact"
with Hungary's neighbors. Le Figaro reported that a loan package
worth 1 billion francs offered by the National Bank of Hungary to
investors in Paris has been postponed owing to a lack of interest.
-- Karoly Okolicsanyi, RFE/RL Inc.
[As of 1200 CET]
(Compiled by Eileen Downing and Jan Cleave)
Copyright 1994, RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
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date=9/29/94
type=correspondent report
number=2-165980
title=NATO Oniter (l only)
byline=Barry Wood
dateline=Seville
content=
voiced at:
Intro: Defense ministers from 16 NATO countries Friday turn
their attention to the Atlantic Alliance's future, specifically
how former East bloc nations might be integrated into the Western
alliance. V-o-A's Barry Wood reports from Seville.
Text: The issue of expansion is one upon which there is no
consensus.
Germany favors a quick expansion of NATO to include Poland, the
Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, possibly by the year 2000.
Other nations, not wanting to offend Mosvow, favor a more
cautious approach. Russia has indicated that it views NATO
expansion to include former East bloc nations as an unfriendly
act unless the alliance also embraces Russia.
Mosvow in June became the 20th country to join the partnership
for peace, the alliance's military cooperation program.
This is an informal meeting, meaning that no binding decisions
are likely to emerge. The first such meeting was held last
October in Germany. Seville is the first NATO defense ministers
meeting to be attended by France since it withdrew from the
unified command structure in 1966. One official said the French
minister was happy to be here and he expects to see him at the
next such meeting in 1995. France says it has no plans to
rejoin NATO's military structure.
On Thursday the ministers agreed on a more determined NATO
response to Bosnian Serb provocations around Sarajevo. They
agreed that continued pressure must be placed on the Bosnian
Serbs to agree to a peace settlement. U-S officials say there
will be a more robust use of NATO air power to future attacks on
U-N peacekeeping troops or violations of the heavy weapons
exclusion zone around Sarajevo. (Signed)
neb/bw/nlc/cf
29-Sep-94 4:38 pm edt (2038 utc)
nnnn
source: Voice of America
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http://www.eunet.sk
Theoretically, all parties participating in the elections have the same
chances. Anyway, there are differences between them from the beginning.
To get a picture, we can divide parties into several "leagues":
The first league are parties, which play for the victory.
In these elections, it seems to be clear for anybody, that the winning
party will be HZDS, which is expected to get ca. 30% of voices.
Coalition Common Choice, led by SDL has current preferences around
15% and they would be very happy to get 20%. However, they seem to
win the elections in the Eastern Slovakia, where HZDS is weak.
The second group consists of parties, which do not bother about
leaping over 5% limit, but do not have ambitions to win. Typical
representative of this league is KDH. Hungarian coalition belongs
here as well, just they have problem that their coalition has limit of
7%, but in all latest polls they got over 7%.
Less typical representative is DU, which still has to bother about
5 %, however they are likely to get over it.
The third category are parties which will fight to get to the parliament.
These are: ZRS (workers), which have very unstable support, SNS,
also with preferences jumping up and down and DS, which has problem
to move up from 4.5%.
The fourth category (or "political folklore") are parties who don't have
chance to get over 5% and are competing "just for fun". Like KSU,
HPC+S, ROI, Nove Slovensko and all the others. Some of them are "phantom"
parties, inspired by the big parties, which have to confuse voters
of another big party and take some of their votes. Example is "Social
democracy", which is a small group of former members of Social Democracy
of Slovakia (SDSS). SDSS is the only relevant social democracy in Slovakia
and it became part of Common Choice coalition.
Result of the elections will be not in the position of parties, but
in the number of seats in the parliament they will get. As the party
forming the government, needs over 50% of them, we can look at the
interpartial relations:
HZDS has best friends in SNS and ZRS, but also coalition with SDL
- or at least with part of SDL - is not excluded.
SDL together with their Common Choice partners could make coalition
with ZRS, but part of SDL can also calculate with HZDS,
while the other part can count with "wide coalition" of today's type
(with KDH, DU, evt. DS).
Hungarian parties would like to participate in "wide coalition", but
if they will request the Komarno requirements, it is not likely.
Anyway, they could silently support "wide coalition", just to
prevent Meciar's return. They will be in opposition of any
government lead by HZDS.
KDH will not make coalition with HZDS and SNS. Otherwise, everything is
possible. Best friends of KDH are DU and DS.
DU - similar to KDH.
ZRS always performed the role of principial opposition, but polls show
their sympathy towards HZDS and SDL.
SNS is not likely to participate in coalition with someone else than HZDS.
DS, if they will get to parliament, will usually support KDH and partially
also DU, but in economy matters they may not support more "socially
oriented" proposals of KDH, being market economy hardliners.
So, how the parliament could look after the elections?
There are several possibilities, for example:
HZDS+SNS+ZRS (if they get over 50% of seats)
HZDS+SDL+ZRS (if pro-Meciar powers in SDL will take the rule)
SDL+KDH+DU+DS (current coalition, maybe with hungarian parties)
SDL+ZRS+KDH+DU (another form, maybe with hungarian parties)
If we will count also with splits in the parties, changes of orientation,
members of parliament leaving their parties etc etc., it is hardly predictable
what will follow...
Anyway, if elections in 1990 had title "Democracy - yes or no?",
elections in 1992 "Czechoslovakia or Slovakia?", main question of these
elections seems to be "authoritative or co-operative government".
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